A new forecast from AlixPartners projects a modest 3%-5% growth for the 2025 holiday retail season, calling it “Underwhelming.” One in three high-income shoppers plans to spend more, signaling a deeper divide between wealthier consumers and everyone else.
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Analysis and Opinions
AlixPartners 2025 U.S. Retail Holiday Outlook: An “Underwhelming” 3%-5% Growth Projected Amid Shifting Consumer Sentiment and Behaviors
Key Takeaways:
- A 3%-5% increase in holiday retail sales is expected.
- AlixPartners labels the growth as “Underwhelming.”
- One in three high-income consumers plans higher holiday spending.
- A widening gap between high- and low-income shoppers is highlighted.
- Shifting consumer behaviors and sentiment shape this 2025 outlook.
The Emerging Holiday Forecast
AlixPartners’ newly released forecast for the 2025 holiday retail season projects a modest sales increase of 3%-5%. Calling the anticipated growth “Underwhelming,” the outlook suggests that retailers and consumers alike could experience a calmer shopping season than in recent years.
High-Income vs. Low-Income Dynamics
One of the most striking findings is that one in three high-income shoppers plans to spend more this holiday season. This behavior reflects a deeper economic divide, as lower-income groups may not have the same spending capacity. AlixPartners’ research underscores a growing concern that holiday retail enthusiasm is becoming increasingly tied to one’s income bracket.
Shifting Consumer Behaviors
Alongside these spending discrepancies, consumer behaviors are shifting in ways that could reshape holiday shopping patterns. While the report only provides a glimpse of the underlying causes, it points to how sentiment about economic conditions continues to influence spending decisions. From brand loyalty to last-minute deals, shoppers’ priorities may differ from one segment to another.
What Lies Ahead
For retailers, this outlook means balancing inventory, pricing, and promotions strategically to address the expectations of distinct income groups. Despite the tempered 3%-5% gain, the holiday season remains an essential period for many businesses. AlixPartners’ findings serve as a reminder that consumer sentiment drives the direction of the retail market, potentially shaping both short-term sales and long-term brand relationships.
