Zillow’s latest data points to a modest 1.5% national rise in U.S. home prices over the coming year, a step back from earlier, more bullish forecasts. While Atlantic City leads projected gains, several Louisiana metros top the list of expected price declines.
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Market Trends
Zillow just revised its home price forecast for 400-plus housing markets
Photo by Fast Company
Key Takeaways:
- Zillow envisions a 1.5% home price increase nationwide by late 2026.
- Atlantic City and Rockford could see the strongest gains among major metros.
- Multiple Louisiana cities are poised for the steepest declines.
- The number of buyer’s markets among large metros has more than doubled in a year.
- Sunbelt areas, especially in Southwest Florida, are showing notable weakness.
Zillow’s Changing Forecast
Zillow economists have revised their U.S. housing outlook several times in recent months. After initially predicting a 2.6% increase for the 12 months heading into 2025, the firm unexpectedly softened its projections, cutting the forecast to -1.7% by April 2025. In late spring, however, Zillow ceased issuing downward revisions. By August, its updated 12-month outlook returned to positive territory at +0.4%, climbed to +1.2% in September, then grew to +1.9% in October—but has now settled slightly lower, at +1.5% for October 2025 to October 2026.
Where Prices Are Poised to Rise
Among the 300 largest U.S. metropolitan areas, Zillow suggests that Atlantic City, New Jersey, could see the strongest price growth (+5.3%) from October 2025 to October 2026. Rockford, Illinois (+4.8%), and Concord, New Hampshire (+4.6%), follow closely. Other notable contenders include Knoxville, Tennessee, at +4.3%, and Kingston, New York, at +4.2%. These areas are projected to outpace the national average, offering a glimmer of optimism within an otherwise restrained market forecast.
| Metro Area | Projected % Change |
|---|---|
| Atlantic City, New Jersey | +5.3% |
| Rockford, Illinois | +4.8% |
| Concord, New Hampshire | +4.6% |
| Knoxville, Tennessee | +4.3% |
| Saginaw, Michigan | +4.3% |
Where Prices Could Slip
Zillow’s latest analysis also pinpoints several markets expected to face notable declines. At the top of that list is Houma, Louisiana, with a projected -7.8% drop, alongside Lake Charles, Louisiana, at -7.3%. In addition, other Louisiana locales—New Orleans, Shreveport, Lafayette, and Alexandria—appear among the 15 metros likely to see the largest price slides.
Current Market Dynamics
Overall, home prices across the nation, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, remain essentially unchanged—up just 0.01% year over year. Should the anticipated 1.5% increase come to fruition, it would mean a modest acceleration on the national scale.
“Zillow’s market heat index shows the strongest buyer’s markets are Miami, New Orleans, Austin, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis,” writes Kara Ng, a senior economist at Zillow. These evolving buyer’s markets correlate with a surge of new construction in recent years, driving increased inventory and giving buyers more leverage.
Buyer’s Markets on the Rise
Compared to last year, the number of the nation’s 50 largest metros identified as buyer’s markets has increased from six to fifteen. At the same time, sellers still retain an upper hand in regions like Buffalo, Hartford, San Jose, San Francisco, and New York—areas known for more complex land use restrictions that can stifle new housing supply.
A Cautious Road Ahead
While Zillow’s current forecast is back in positive territory, it remains modest. The Sunbelt, especially Southwest Florida, continues to show the most pronounced weakness. In contrast, parts of the Northeast and several smaller metros appear set to ride out the next year with moderate gains, underscoring the uneven nature of this housing market landscape.
