Cable-slicing ships show Russia pressing on a Western weak spot

Key Takeaways:

• Russia is accused of using aging tankers to sabotage undersea cables by dragging anchors.
• These actions exploit vulnerabilities in Western critical undersea infrastructure like internet and power lines.
• The use of a “shadow fleet” provides Russia with plausible deniability.
• The shadow fleet may exceed 1,400 vessels, making monitoring difficult.
• Western nations have limited options to counter these covert operations.

Russia’s Alleged Sabotage Tactics

A series of apparent attacks on undersea internet and power cables in the Baltic Sea has officials and analysts pointing to Russia’s exploitation of a Western vulnerability. Aging tankers are allegedly dragging their anchors across the seabed, severing crucial cables, and disrupting communication and energy transmission.

On Christmas Day, the tanker Eagle S dragged its anchor for hundreds of miles, damaging the Estlink 2 power line between Finland and Estonia, along with telecommunications cables. European officials assert that this was no accident but a deliberate act of sabotage.

The Shadow Fleet and Plausible Deniability

The vessels involved are reputed to be part of a “shadow fleet”—ships not directly tied to Russia but used to evade sanctions and mask illicit activities. The Eagle S, for example, is owned by a company registered in the UAE, managed by a firm in Mumbai, and sails under the flag of the Cook Islands.

“Russia gets a number of advantages from using its shadow fleet for this purpose. The most important one is deniability and ambiguity,” said Henri van Soest, a senior analyst at RAND Europe. “We currently have little insight into the make-up of the shadow fleet.”

Grey Zone Warfare Beneath the Waves

Analysts classify these incidents as examples of “grey zone” tactics—strategies used by nations like Russia and China to destabilize rivals without engaging in open warfare. “Attacks on CUI have become a viable weapon in grey zone warfare,” noted James Foggo, a retired US Navy admiral, referring to critical undersea infrastructure.

Other incidents include the Chinese-flagged vessels Yi Peng 3 and Newnew Polar Bear damaging cables in the Baltic in October and November 2023. Taiwan reported a similar incident on January 6, where a Chinese-owned tanker severed cables near its north coast.

Challenges in Monitoring and Defense

The shadow fleet could include over 1,400 vessels, making surveillance and defense a daunting task. “Any ship that forms part of the shadow fleet could potentially be on a sabotage mission,” van Soest pointed out. “It also sends the implicit message that Russia could swiftly order a larger number of shadow fleet vessels to start sabotage actions, leading to far greater damage and disruption.”

Western nations have limited options. Sweden plans to contribute three naval ships to bolster NATO patrols in the Baltic. However, Erin Murphy, deputy director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, expressed skepticism: “Increased patrols could help, but there’s still the problem in terms of the size of the ocean and waterways.”

Potential Risks for Russia

While these tactics offer plausible deniability, they come with risks. Sidharth Kaushal, a research fellow at London’s Royal United Services Institute, cautioned that pushing too hard with the fleet could prompt Western navies to treat it as a hostile entity, undermining its value in evading sanctions.

Moreover, the strategy can be clumsy. “Anchors can bounce on the ocean floor and miss cutting the cable entirely, if that was the intent of a ship,” Murphy noted.

Conclusion: Chasing Shadows

The sabotage of undersea cables underscores a critical vulnerability in Western infrastructure and the complexity of defending against covert threats. With limited options and an ocean too vast to patrol effectively, Western nations are left grappling with a challenge that remains largely unseen beneath the waves.

“As nations grapple with these covert tactics, the task of securing the vast expanse of the seas remains a complex and pressing issue,” said Foggo. For now, the West is left chasing shadows in the depths.