U.S. economy should take off by fourth quarter, Bessent predicts – Axios

Key Takeaways:

• Bessent predicts a robust U.S. economic surge by the fourth quarter.
• Job figures are central to understanding the potential recovery.
• Former President Trump’s criticism of the Federal Reserve is highlighted.
• Revisions of 2024 job data may be as high as 800,000.
• The timing of Fed policy decisions is under renewed scrutiny.

Bessent’s Vision for the Fourth Quarter

Bessent forecasts that the U.S. economy is on course for a substantial boost by the end of the year. While details remain scant, his statement—“U.S. economy should take off by fourth quarter”—underscores his confidence in key economic trends.

Reading the Jobs Data

Central to Bessent’s view is the state of the labor market. Job figures, which he believes will bolster the economy’s momentum, draw attention to the strength or weakness of new and existing employment opportunities. He specifically remarks that the data “reveal Trump correct to criticize Fed’s tardiness,” a pointed comment on the Federal Reserve’s reaction speed to economic conditions.

Trump, the Fed, and the Forecast

Bessent’s predictions give an indirect nod to conversations initiated by former President Trump regarding Federal Reserve policies. According to Bessent, these job figures add weight to Trump’s criticisms and hint that the Fed’s late measures may need to catch up if the economy is to make the most of any forthcoming momentum.

Looking Ahead to 2024

Beyond the immediate outlook, Bessent also points to potential revisions in 2024 job figures, which could be “revised down by 800k.” A revision of this magnitude could shift broader economic perceptions and policy decisions. However, the overall message is that growth could still be on the horizon, provided that policymakers address labor market realities and move with the evolving economic landscape.